Worst case scenario: Things get out of control between Iran and Israel

The worst possible scenarios if things get out of control

1. Direct US involvement Despite Washington's official denial of involvement in the attacks, Iran believes that US forces tacitly approved, or at least supported, the Israeli strikes.

If Iran decides to respond, it could target US forces in the Middle East, such as special forces camps in Iraq, military bases in the Gulf, or diplomatic missions. Despite the decline in the power of Hamas and Hezbollah, Tehran-backed groups in Iraq remain powerful and well-armed.

2. Drag the Gulf states into the conflict If Iran is unable to directly damage hardened Israeli military targets, it may aim its missiles at "soft targets" in the Gulf, particularly countries that Tehran accuses of supporting its enemies over the years.

However, these countries host American air bases. If attacked, they too may require direct American military intervention to defend themselves, in addition to defending Israel.

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3. The fall of the Iranian regime and the creation of a dangerous vacuum What if Israel succeeds in achieving its long-term goal of overthrowing the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran?

The Israeli Prime Minister made clear in his recent statements that the goal is not limited to limiting the nuclear and missile threat, but also includes regime change.

Following the direct missile strike that targeted a residential building in the Tel Aviv city of Rishon LeZion on Saturday morning, killing two civilians, the Israeli newspaper Maariv revealed that a former high-ranking security official lived just meters from the site of the missile strike.

According to the newspaper, the official, who previously served as head of a central security agency and currently serves as CEO of one of Israel's largest energy companies, was unharmed, nor were his family members, despite the rocket falling only about 250 meters from his home.

This comes amid repeated warnings from the Israeli security establishment, led by the General Security Service (Shin Bet), which last year uncovered 22 cases of Iranian-linked espionage and sabotage inside Israel. These cases included the recruitment of Israelis to gather intelligence, including data on senior security officials and their whereabouts.

Israeli sources indicated that facilities located in areas such as Tanz, Bushehr, and Isfahan were targeted, but the accuracy and effectiveness of the strikes have not yet been officially confirmed.

He pointed out that one of the major obstacles facing Israel is the geographical nature of Iran's nuclear sites. They are numerous and widely distributed, and some are located underground. This makes targeting them entirely difficult and highlights the limitations of Israel's military capabilities in this context.

He continued: "The assessment of the damage caused by these strikes remains subject to the revelations of the reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, as they are the only entity capable of providing an accurate and reliable technical assessment. Until these reports are issued, it remains too early to determine whether the operation represents a shift toward a full-scale war, or whether they are merely symbolic strikes aimed at political pressure."

He added, "Although the US president denied prior knowledge of the operation, subsequent statements issued via his digital platforms hinted at indirect coordination, or at least US administration awareness of Israeli movements. The likelihood of US forces participating on the ground remains uncertain, given the extensive logistical, security, and intelligence support required."

He concluded: "Iran has declared a state of maximum readiness and made changes to the leadership of the army and the Revolutionary Guard, reflecting the possibility of deep security breaches affecting sensitive sites and figures. The strikes have also caused confusion within Iranian political and military circles. Despite this, observers believe these developments will not push Tehran to change its strategy or make concessions in the nuclear negotiations, as Iran adheres to its consistent approach to dealing with the nuclear issue and regional deterrence issues."

It's worth noting that this round of Israeli strikes on Iran reveals a highly sensitive regional landscape, where military considerations intertwine with political messages.

Although the strikes may not be enough to bring about a radical shift in the Iranian nuclear file, they carry signals of Israel's willingness to take risks, even in a complex regional environment.